Here's a great resource for keeping up on the debt ceiling debate in Congress.
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Thursday, July 28, 2011
Friday, July 22, 2011
Budget deal impact on Mankato, outstate Minnesota
How will the Mankato region and outstate Minnesota be impacted by the recently approved state budget deal?
A few quick thoughts.
Health care, human services
Health care reforms will be a challenge for outstate providers. Reimbursement rates will be cut unless hospitals and others can prevent some tough medical cases (the poor on medical assistance) from returning to emergency rooms.
The reforms sound like a good way to save money, but remember, lots of these folks have mental illness and chronic conditions. Rural and outstate hospitals may have fewer resources to really make these "incentive" plans workable.
On the flip side, there should be a lot of opportunity for rural counties to join together in delivering services and setting up joint administrative centers for human services. There appear to be incentives to do these kind of collaborations. Some small counties have experience doing it already, so there's a model out there.
A little known provision in the final health and human services bill will blow a surprising hole in county budgets regarding payments for sex offenders:
Here it is:
K-12 education
With the state borrowing from schools, and thus schools having to borrow themselves to make up for 40 percent delay in payments, it will be tough on small districts who face cash flow issues and face declining enrollment already.
A $50 increase in the per-pupil formula will not help a district that is losing hundreds of students, or even 50.
I would expect to see more stress on outstate school finances, and therefore, incentive to merge, like we saw recently with Le Center and Montgomery Lonsdale.
New required annual evaluations for teachers will be touchy for small school districts as everyone knows everybody and it will likely be a big cultural change at many schools that never had required evaluations.
Tying those evaluations to scores could also be problematic because students with risk factors for poor performance can be concentrated at small schools. One school in Mankato has 50 percent of its students that qualify for free or reduced priced lunches, while others are nowhere near that.
So, with teachers knowing they'll be evaluated based on student success, will there be an incentive to work at only the schools in neighborhoods that are middle class or well off?
Scores can be affected by small groups, but it's a positive that the local school boards and teacher reps will be able to choose what scores to use in measuring student progress.
Higher education
Of course, many regional centers have one or more state universities or community colleges. With cuts in the 10 percent range in higher education, it's clear these communities will be impacted with higher education job loss.
Minnesota State Mankato has cut approximately 100 high paying jobs over the last two years. Tuition will increase for kids going to school, which means they may have less to spend at the local malls, bars and restaurants.
Jobs
The $500 million bonding bill will help mitigate the job losses in outstate Minnesota where construction is typically slower. The bonding bill will also help mitigate some job loss from state employment, as the workforce is scheduled to be reduced by 6 percent through attrition.
The Mankato area has one of the highest concentrations of state employees in the state, almost 10 percent of wages, depending on how you measure it. Many other regional centers have the same kind of exposure to a state workforce.
The 15 percent cuts in jobs Republicans had proposed would obviously have had more impact.
A few quick thoughts.
Health care, human services
Health care reforms will be a challenge for outstate providers. Reimbursement rates will be cut unless hospitals and others can prevent some tough medical cases (the poor on medical assistance) from returning to emergency rooms.
The reforms sound like a good way to save money, but remember, lots of these folks have mental illness and chronic conditions. Rural and outstate hospitals may have fewer resources to really make these "incentive" plans workable.
On the flip side, there should be a lot of opportunity for rural counties to join together in delivering services and setting up joint administrative centers for human services. There appear to be incentives to do these kind of collaborations. Some small counties have experience doing it already, so there's a model out there.
A little known provision in the final health and human services bill will blow a surprising hole in county budgets regarding payments for sex offenders:
Here it is:
Section 1 (246B.10) increase the county share for person civilly committed to the Minnesota Sex Offender Program from ten percent to 25 percent. This section is effective for all individuals who are civilly committed to the Minnesota Sex Offender Program on or after August 1, 2011.
Ouch. That will hurt, or it will create incentives for county attorneys to avoid committing sex offenders. That won't go over well with the public.
K-12 education
With the state borrowing from schools, and thus schools having to borrow themselves to make up for 40 percent delay in payments, it will be tough on small districts who face cash flow issues and face declining enrollment already.
A $50 increase in the per-pupil formula will not help a district that is losing hundreds of students, or even 50.
I would expect to see more stress on outstate school finances, and therefore, incentive to merge, like we saw recently with Le Center and Montgomery Lonsdale.
New required annual evaluations for teachers will be touchy for small school districts as everyone knows everybody and it will likely be a big cultural change at many schools that never had required evaluations.
Tying those evaluations to scores could also be problematic because students with risk factors for poor performance can be concentrated at small schools. One school in Mankato has 50 percent of its students that qualify for free or reduced priced lunches, while others are nowhere near that.
So, with teachers knowing they'll be evaluated based on student success, will there be an incentive to work at only the schools in neighborhoods that are middle class or well off?
Scores can be affected by small groups, but it's a positive that the local school boards and teacher reps will be able to choose what scores to use in measuring student progress.
Higher education
Of course, many regional centers have one or more state universities or community colleges. With cuts in the 10 percent range in higher education, it's clear these communities will be impacted with higher education job loss.
Minnesota State Mankato has cut approximately 100 high paying jobs over the last two years. Tuition will increase for kids going to school, which means they may have less to spend at the local malls, bars and restaurants.
Jobs
The $500 million bonding bill will help mitigate the job losses in outstate Minnesota where construction is typically slower. The bonding bill will also help mitigate some job loss from state employment, as the workforce is scheduled to be reduced by 6 percent through attrition.
The Mankato area has one of the highest concentrations of state employees in the state, almost 10 percent of wages, depending on how you measure it. Many other regional centers have the same kind of exposure to a state workforce.
The 15 percent cuts in jobs Republicans had proposed would obviously have had more impact.
Monday, July 11, 2011
Tom Horner: still willing to help solve budget problem
I spoke with former Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner this morning.
He is visiting editors in southern Minnesota to say he is willing to help solve Minnesota's budget problem, much the same task he ran on in last year's election.
He has offered his help to both sides in the standoff. But, so far, no takers.
Horner suggests Dayton and GOP approve a narrow lights on bill and take two months to try to hammer out significant long-term spending and taxing reforms. Otherwise, he says, we'll simply be in the same spot two years from now.
He and former congressman and Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tim Penny wrote an opinion piece for the Star Tribune suggestion solutions for a "third way" to solve the budget impasse.
That's simply a way for both sides to adopt solutions and still maintain their "core principles." Horner believes it can be done, even if Dayton doesn't get his "tax the rich" plan and even if Republicans don't get their "within our means" checkbook.
He was trying to drum up some attention in the state to get his former supporters, largely the independent voter in the middle, to contact Dayton and their legislators and urge an end to the shutdown and long-term reforms.
Horner suggests once the lights on bill is passed, the governor and the legislature should bring in experts to help them achieve goals like health care access and sustainable spending.
Horner is also sure the "third way" suggestion has to come from the governor's office.
I can't say I disagree a lot with what Horner has to say. The Free Press editorial board took a stand last year that Horner had the most reasonable budget proposal and that it involved necessary reforms.
I also urge readers to e-mail Dayton or their legislator. There are easy e-mail links here.
He is visiting editors in southern Minnesota to say he is willing to help solve Minnesota's budget problem, much the same task he ran on in last year's election.
He has offered his help to both sides in the standoff. But, so far, no takers.
Horner suggests Dayton and GOP approve a narrow lights on bill and take two months to try to hammer out significant long-term spending and taxing reforms. Otherwise, he says, we'll simply be in the same spot two years from now.
He and former congressman and Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tim Penny wrote an opinion piece for the Star Tribune suggestion solutions for a "third way" to solve the budget impasse.
That's simply a way for both sides to adopt solutions and still maintain their "core principles." Horner believes it can be done, even if Dayton doesn't get his "tax the rich" plan and even if Republicans don't get their "within our means" checkbook.
He was trying to drum up some attention in the state to get his former supporters, largely the independent voter in the middle, to contact Dayton and their legislators and urge an end to the shutdown and long-term reforms.
Horner suggests once the lights on bill is passed, the governor and the legislature should bring in experts to help them achieve goals like health care access and sustainable spending.
Horner is also sure the "third way" suggestion has to come from the governor's office.
I can't say I disagree a lot with what Horner has to say. The Free Press editorial board took a stand last year that Horner had the most reasonable budget proposal and that it involved necessary reforms.
I also urge readers to e-mail Dayton or their legislator. There are easy e-mail links here.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Observations on budget stalemate/shutdown
A few thoughts on events that have transpired in the last 24 hours on breakdown of budget negotiations.
When all is said and done, Republicans and Dayton are not that far apart on the numbers. We should be able to work this out. However, it was very surprising and troubling to me that Republicans would try to negotiate social issues back into the budget debate after Dayton had vetoed many of these proposals.
Here's the confidential Republican proposal to detailed social issues.
That just doesn't seem like a reasonable strategy.
Dayton is showing himself to be formidable governor in terms of using the bully pulpit to "frame" the issues.
His use of the phrases that Republicans are "against helping disabled people with personal care attendants" and yet not making millionaires "pay one more dollar," will resonate with a lot of people who are not millionaires - the "one dollar more" phrase in particular.
Of course, the millionaires would pay way more than "one dollar more" but Dayton framed it in a way that will make people really think about this.
He also took out the heavy artillary when he quoted one Republican legislator who said of the millionaires "some of these people are our friends."
Whether you believe it or not, it makes it sound like they're really concerned about their millionaire friends pocketbooks and not their willingness to create jobs.
And it sounds like Republicans are really holding onto their millionaire friends not because they provide jobs (as they continually state), but just because they dont' think they should be taxed at a higher rate (a position that would play out far worse than the job issue framing).
Republicans are doing all they can to blame the shutdown on Dayton. They were in House chamber ready to vote, which played OK, but most media put quotes from opposition higher in stories where opposition called it a grandstanding.
Note to Republicans. If you want to have journalists give you the benefit of a doubt every once in a while, you might not want to continually question their integrity, at least not in public. (CC to Sarah Palin).
On the Republican proposals to add $1 billion in revenue: Most people would not consider borrowing from schools and future tobacco funds as a "conservative" idea.
Finally on tax the rich: Dayton would do better here if he said "tax the rich the same as the middle class."
If you ask most people if the rich should pay 1) the same rate of tax as the middle class, 2) a higher rate, or 3) a lower rate, the vast majority will say the same or higher.
The Minnesota tax incidence study that both sides have used for their own purposes, shows the rich pay a LOWER RATE than the middle class considering all taxes.
As I've said before, this battle is for the moderate Republicans to win. I've talked to several who would go for more revenue in sales tax, income tax and in a variety of places, but they feel beholden to a party that will impart its wisdom with a stick and not a carrot.
If moderate (and many outstate) Republicans can pull it off, I think they'll be able to maintain control of both houses. If not, it could be all Democrats in 2012 and they will essentially turn back everything Republicans have done, which, incidentally, also wouldn't be good for the state.
When all is said and done, Republicans and Dayton are not that far apart on the numbers. We should be able to work this out. However, it was very surprising and troubling to me that Republicans would try to negotiate social issues back into the budget debate after Dayton had vetoed many of these proposals.
Here's the confidential Republican proposal to detailed social issues.
That just doesn't seem like a reasonable strategy.
Dayton is showing himself to be formidable governor in terms of using the bully pulpit to "frame" the issues.
His use of the phrases that Republicans are "against helping disabled people with personal care attendants" and yet not making millionaires "pay one more dollar," will resonate with a lot of people who are not millionaires - the "one dollar more" phrase in particular.
Of course, the millionaires would pay way more than "one dollar more" but Dayton framed it in a way that will make people really think about this.
He also took out the heavy artillary when he quoted one Republican legislator who said of the millionaires "some of these people are our friends."
Whether you believe it or not, it makes it sound like they're really concerned about their millionaire friends pocketbooks and not their willingness to create jobs.
And it sounds like Republicans are really holding onto their millionaire friends not because they provide jobs (as they continually state), but just because they dont' think they should be taxed at a higher rate (a position that would play out far worse than the job issue framing).
Republicans are doing all they can to blame the shutdown on Dayton. They were in House chamber ready to vote, which played OK, but most media put quotes from opposition higher in stories where opposition called it a grandstanding.
Note to Republicans. If you want to have journalists give you the benefit of a doubt every once in a while, you might not want to continually question their integrity, at least not in public. (CC to Sarah Palin).
On the Republican proposals to add $1 billion in revenue: Most people would not consider borrowing from schools and future tobacco funds as a "conservative" idea.
Finally on tax the rich: Dayton would do better here if he said "tax the rich the same as the middle class."
If you ask most people if the rich should pay 1) the same rate of tax as the middle class, 2) a higher rate, or 3) a lower rate, the vast majority will say the same or higher.
The Minnesota tax incidence study that both sides have used for their own purposes, shows the rich pay a LOWER RATE than the middle class considering all taxes.
As I've said before, this battle is for the moderate Republicans to win. I've talked to several who would go for more revenue in sales tax, income tax and in a variety of places, but they feel beholden to a party that will impart its wisdom with a stick and not a carrot.
If moderate (and many outstate) Republicans can pull it off, I think they'll be able to maintain control of both houses. If not, it could be all Democrats in 2012 and they will essentially turn back everything Republicans have done, which, incidentally, also wouldn't be good for the state.
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