Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Dow over 13,000: Today's good news? Maybe

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke what many are calling a "psychological" barrier today surpassing the 13,000 mark.

Here's how the Associated Press story describes the event:

"It came and went in a flash each time, a number on a board for mere seconds, but its symbolic power couldn't be dismissed.

The Dow Jones industrial average, powered higher all year by optimism that the economic recovery is finally for real, crossed 13,000 on Tuesday for the first time since May 2008.

The last time the Dow was there, unemployment was 5.4 percent, and Lehman Brothers was a solvent investment bank. Financial crises happened in other countries, or the history books.

The milestone Tuesday came about two hours into the trading day. The Dow was above 13,000 for about 30 seconds, and for slightly longer at about noon and 1:30 p.m., but couldn't hold its gains. It finished up 15.82 points at 12,965.69.

Still, Wall Street took note of the marker.

It was just last summer that the Dow unburdened itself of 2,000 points in three terrifying weeks. Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating, Washington was fighting over the federal borrowing limit, and the European debt crisis was raging.

A second recession in the United States was a real fear. But the economy grew faster every quarter last year, and gains in the job market have been impressive, including 243,000 jobs added in January alone.

"Essentially over the last couple of months you've taken the two biggest fears off the table, that Europe is going to melt down and that we're going to have another recession here," said Scott Brown, chief economist for Raymond James."

People smarter than me would say now we have to watch to see if it can close above 13,000 and then hold it.

That indicates market psychology. In the old days when I used to talk to more traders, they would say if the Dow can keep finishing higher or in a small range, but today's low trade level isn't broken, the trend can be postivie.

Traders will watch the opening tomorrow.

For most of us, it seems like a bit of relief as we watch our 401ks continue to climb back to 2008 levels.

But there's also been numerous stories that the Dow doesn't function on the "fundamentals" anymore....i.e.corporate earnings, productivity, employment, wages...but more these odd world events and even political events....of which we still have many.

My two cents: I feel we're on a positive swing, but as they say: "Don't bet on that."

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